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Does Vermont Have Primary Pull?

Burlington, Vermont - September 12, 2007

Nearly 100 people packed Burlington bar Metronome on Wednesday night -- not for a party, but a politician: Barack Obama, a Democrat for president.

"I didn't want to start paying attention to the campaign this early," said Alex Ball, an Obama supporter from Burlington. "I really didn't. But every time I turned around the guy was just grabbing my attention."

Obama has already built a groundswell of early support in Vermont. The Federal Election Commission reports that as of June 30th, Vermonters had donated $241,000 to all candidates for president. Democrats took in $172,000, with Obama picking up the lion's share -- $127,000. That's more than all the other candidates combined, and six times the amount donated to his closest competitor, Hillary Clinton.

"I'm in my 60s and I've seen a lot campaigns," Obama supporter Ida Gatwood said. "And I think this is the first guy in a long time that is really real."

But will support here even matter? By the time Vermont's primary rolls around on Town Meeting Day in March, at least 30 states will have voted. The Democratic nominee is likely to be determined before Vermonters even cast their ballots.

"I don't think we need to take a back seat and say we're small and late," said Bill Sorrell, D-Vt. Attorney General, who delivered his endorsement at the rally. "I think we've got a role to play."

That role is likely to include its very powerful neighbor.

"The reality is, this race might be over before Vermont's primary," Sorrell said. "But New Hampshire is right next door, and that's an early primary. Hopefully a lot of Vermonters will go over."

Obama was in Burlington last year campaigning for Vermont Democrats, and was at a fundraiser in Norwich in August. Other than that, he has not campaigned in Vermont, though he has drawn huge crowds just across the river, including at a Memorial Day rally at Dartmouth College.

The head of the grass-roots organization Vermonters for Obama said Vermont's late primary offers one advantage. Neil Jensen explained, "Because there's not a lot of pressure on trying to win here in Vermont, it allows us to go where we really think we can do the most good, which is the New Hampshire primary. I think that will be a pivotal part of the nomination process."

Supporters point to Vermont's long tradition of political activism as proof that Vermont's voice far exceeds its size.

"What Vermont thinks counts," Alex Ball said. "Whether we vote early or not, it doesn't really matter."

And it looks like Obama needs the help in New Hampshire -- the latest poll of Granite State voters shows him trailing frontrunner Hillary Clinton. A poll released Wednesday by the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News showed Clinton had the support of 35% of Democrats -- compared to 16% for Obama and John Edwards.

Kate Duffy - WCAX News