YCQM: Sept. 17, 2017

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BURLINGTON, Vt. >> Announcer: FROM WCAX, THIS IS
"YOU CAN QUOTE ME."
>> Darren: GOOD MORNING,
EVERYONE.
I'M DARREN PERRON.
RIGHT NOW ON "YOU CAN QUOTE ME,"
THE STORY COMES TO AN END FOR A
THEATER COMPANY IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.
QNEK TAKES ITS FINAL BOW.
ALWAYS LOOK AT TWO DEADLY
HURRICANES TO HIT THE U.S., IRMA
AND HARVEY, AND NOW JOSE IS
SPINNING OUT THERE TOO.
WHY SUCH AN ACTIVE SEASON?
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
A CLIMATOLOGIST JOIN ME IN JUST
A BIT.
AND A TERRIFYING HOSPITAL
SHOOTING SENT PATIENTS AND STAFF
SCRAMBLING.
THIS MORNING, SIGNS OF TRAUMA.
AND THAT'S WHERE WE BEGIN THIS
MORNING, A MOTHER MURDERED IN
HER HOSPITAL BED AND POLICE SAY
HER SON DID IT.
WE LEARNED MORE ABOUT THE
SHOOTING AT DARTMOUTH-HITCHCOCK
WHEN THE SUSPECT APPEARED IN
COURT.
>> AND PLEADING NOT GUILTY?
>> YES, YOUR HONOR.
>> Darren: THAT WAS TRAVIS
FRANK'S ATTORNEY DENYING FIRST
DEGREE MURDER CHARGES ON HIS
BEHALF IN GRAFTON SUPERIOR
COURT.
COURT PAPERWORK SHOWS THE
48-YEAR-OLD WALKED INTO
70-YEAR-OLD PAMELA FERRIER'S
HOSPITAL ROOM AT AROUND 1:15
TUESDAY AND FIRED SEVERAL SHOTS
AT HER WITH A HANDGUN.
POLICE SAY HIS STEPFATHER AND A
NURSE WITNESSED THE SHOOTING AND
CALLED POLICE.
POLICE SAY FRANK TOLD THEM HE
INTENDED TO KILL HIS MOM.
SHE WAS SUPPOSED TO GO HOME ON
FRIDAY.
CHANNEL 3'S TYLER DUMONT WAS IN
COURT.
>> Reporter: AN EMOTIONLESS
TRAVIS FRANK WALKED INTO COURT
IN CUFFS AND A JAIL JUMPSUIT.
>> AND PLEADING NOT GUILTY?
>> YES, YOUR HONOR.
>> Reporter: PROSECUTORS SAY HE
SHOT HIS MOTHER, PAMELA FERRIER
WHILE SHE WAS A THE ICU AT
DARTMOUTH-HITCHCOCK MEDICAL
CENTER FOR A BRAIN ANEURYSM.
>> I CANNOT BEGIN TO EXPRESS THE
AMOUNT OF TRAUMA THAT BOTH
ENDURED FROM WITNESSING
YESTERDAY'S EVENTS.
>> Reporter: A NURSE TOLD POLICE
SHE SAW FRANK PULL OUT A HANDGUN
AND HEARD TWO SHOTS FOLLOWED BY
SCREAMS.
FRANK'S STEPFATHER, ALSO IN THE
HOSPITAL ROOM, TOLD POLICE THE
SUSPECT ASKED FOR A MOMENT ALONE
WITH HIS MOTHER AND THEN WATCHED
HIS STEP SON POINT A GUN AND
FIRE SHOTS.
>> IF THERE'S ANYBODY OUT THERE
THAT HAS INFORMATION ABOUT
MR. FRANK IN THE DAYS LEADING UP
TO YESTERDAY OR IF ANYONE SAW
HIM YESTERDAY AT THE HOSPITAL,
THAT YOU CONTACT THE LEAD
DETECTIVE.
>> Reporter: FRANK ALLEGEDLY
TOLD POLICE HE INTENDED TO KILL
HIS MOTHER AND DROVE UP FROM HIS
RHODE ISLAND HOME EARLIER IN THE
DAY TO DO IT.
>> AT TIME OF AN ACTIVE SHOOTER
IN A HOSPITAL, IN THE EVENTS, WE
DID WHAT WE WERE TRAINED TO DO.
>> Reporter: DOZENS OF POLICE
OFFICERS RESPONDS, DETAINING
FRANK AS HE TRIED TO LEAVE.
THE HOSPITAL SAYS NO OTHER
PATIENTS OR STAFF WERE HURT AND
THEIR INTERNAL RESPONSE IS UNDER
REVIEW.
>> WE'VE TRAINED FOR THIS AND
PEOPLE WERE READY, READY FOR
SOMETHING YOU SHOULD NEVER BE
READY FOR.
>> Reporter: THE ALLEGED MOTIVE
HERE REMAINS UNCLEAR.
PROSECUTORS WITH ASKED THAT
QUESTION BUT DECLINED TO COMMENT
AND WHILE WE KNOW THAT FERRIER
WAS IN THE ICU, WE KNOW SHE WAS
SUPPOSED TO BE DISCHARGED ON
FRIDAY.
TYLER DUH MONT, CHANNEL 3 NEWS.
>> Darren: VIOLENCE LIKE THAT
CAN CAUSE TRAUMA IN PEOPLE WHO
WERE THERE AND TO TALK MORE
ABOUT THAT AND SIGNS TO LOOK OUT
FOR, I'M JOINED BY BETTY DAY, A
TRAUMA SPECIALIST AT VERMONT
COUNSELING AND WELLNESS.
GOOD MORNING TO YOU.
>> Day: GOOD MORNING.
>> Darren: ARE PEOPLE THERE
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SOME SORT
OF TRAUMA AFTER THIS?
>> Day: IT'S POSSIBLE.
IT'S UNPREDICT HOW IT AFFECTS
ANY PARTICULAR INDIVIDUAL AND
CERTAINLY PEOPLE'S MENTAL AND
PHYSICAL HEALTH PRIOR TO THE
EVENT ARE SOMETHING TO THINK
ABOUT.
BECAUSE OF THE UNPREDICTABLE
QUALITY OF IT, WE DIDN'T EXPECT
FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WHEN WE WENT
INTO WORK THIS DAY, AND THAT IT
WAS LIFE THREATENING, SETS OFF A
CHAIN OF PHYSIOLOGICAL
RESPONSES, AND SO PEOPLE NEED TO
ATTEND TO THEIR PHYSIOLOGY.
SOME PEOPLE MAY GET AMPED UP
WITH ANXIETY, STRESS, SEVERE
STRESS, LEADING TO POOR SLEEP,
POOR APPETITE, POOR
CONCENTRATION, AND THEN THE
SECONDARY PROBLEMS FROM THAT,
IRRITABILITY, LOW FRUSTRATION.
SOME PEOPLE MAY GET AMPED DOWN
IN A MORE NUMBING SHUTDOWN KIND
OF MODE.
EITHER WAY, THAT'S UNPREDICTABLE
HOW PEOPLE WILL RESPOND.
PEOPLE SHOULD REALLY ATTEND TO
THEIR PHYSIOLOGY BECAUSE IT WILL
TAKE TIME FOR THE BODY AND THE
SYSTEM TO SETTLE DOWN FROM
HAVING UNDERGONE SUCH STRESS.
>> Darren: SO THOSE ARE
BASICALLY THE SIGNS OF TRAUMA.
>> Day: YES, AND THEY'RE
VARIABLE FROM ONE PERSON TO THE
NEXT.
AND AGAIN, THE BODY NEEDS TO
RESET AFTER SUCH AN EXPERIENCE,
SO AS LONG AS PEOPLE'S SYMPTOMS
ARE LESSENING OVER TIME, WE HAVE
TO, YOU KNOW, EXPECT THAT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RESET AND
KIND OF RECALIBRATE FROM THIS
EXPERIENCE.
>> Darren: SO IF FOLKS ARE NOT
SEEING SYMPTOMS NOW, THEY COULD
BECAUSE THERE'S NO REALTIME
LIMIT, RIGHT, ON TRAUMA?
>> Day: YES, SO IT COULD COME UP
UNAPPLICANTABLY, BUT --
UNPREDICTABLY, BUT PEOPLE'S
COPING MECHANISMS THAT THEY USE,
THEY SHOULD RETURN TO MORE SO
AND ATTEND TO THEIR PHYSIOLOGY
SO THEY CAN GET SLEEP, THE
BASICS OF FUNCTIONING CAN
CONTINUE.
IF THE SYMPTOMS PERSIST TO THE
DEGREE THAT ARE REALLY
INTERFERING WITH FUNCTIONING,
THAT'S WHEN PEOPLE MAY SEEK OUT
MORE INTENSIVE INTERVENTION
OTHER THAN THEIR OWN COPING
MECHANISMS.
>> Darren: AND FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN
YOU TALKING ABOUT COPING, LIKE
WHAT KINDS OF THINGS ARE YOU
REFERRING TO?
>> Day: SO THERE'S A TENDENCY TO
WANT TO KNOW MORE ABOUT THE
EVENT AND JUST A NATURAL
TENDENCY TO WANT TO KNOW MORE
ABOUT IT IN A PROTECTIVE MANNER.
BUT REALLY PEOPLE SHOULD BE
CAREFUL ABOUT HOW MUCH THEY
STIMULATE THEMSELVES WITH
INFORMATION ABOUT THE EVENT, AND
TO HAVE PERIODS WHERE YOU AREN'T
THINKING ABOUT IT, AREN'T
TALKING ABOUT IT, DISTRACTING
YOURSELF WITH ACTIVITY, REALLY
SETTLES THE SYSTEM OR GETS YOUR
SYSTEM A LITTLE BIT MORE
ACTIVATED IF YOU'RE IN A MORE
NUMBED OR SHUTDOWN MODE.
>> Darren: OFTENTIMES AFTER A
TRAGEDY LIKE THIS, WE AS THE
NEWS TELL PEOPLE IF THEY'RE
HAVING SYMPTOMS, THAT THEY NEED
TO SEEK HELP PERHAPS.
BUT OFTENTIMES PEOPLE DON'T.
WHAT DO YOU RECOMMEND?
WHO SHOULD PEOPLE SEE AND WHEN
SHOULD THEY?
WHEN DO YOU KNOW YOU SHOULD?
>> Day: I THINK PEOPLE SHOULD
KNOW THAT THEY CAN GET RELIEF
FROM THIS, BUT IT IS A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT FOR ANYBODY
THAT WAS THERE THAT DAY, AND IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME.
SO AGAIN, IF YOU FEEL LIKE YOU
ARE SETTLING DOWN AFTER THE
EVENT AND SYMPTOMS ARE
LESSENING, IN TIME, PROBABLY IT
WILL BE OKAY.
BUT TO GO TO PRIMARY CARE
PHYSICIANS.
IF YOU HAVE ACCESS TO
COUNSELING, YOU WANT TO HAVE
FOLKS THAT ARE TRAUMA INFORMED,
AND DESENSITIZATION IS A GOOD
TREATMENT, ESPECIALLY FOR SINGLE
EPISODES LIKE THIS, THAT PEOPLE
SHOULD SEEK OUT RELIEF AND KNOW
THAT THEY CAN GET RELIEF.
>> Darren: I KNOW THAT EMDR IS
COMPLICATED TO EXPLAIN, BUT FOR
FOLKS WHO DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU'RE
TALKING ABOUT, CAN YOU SUM IT
UP?
>> Day: YEAH, EMDR SPECIALISTS
ARE TRAINED IN PROCESSING THE
EVENT AND OFFERING DIFFERENT EYE
MOVEMENTS, AND IT'S THROUGH THE
OPTIC NERVE THAT IT SETTLES DOWN
THE AREA OF THE BRAIN MOST
IMPACTED FROM THE EXPERIENCE SO
THEY CAN TOLERATE REMEMBERING OR
BEING TRIGGERED ABOUT THE
EXPERIENCE THROUGH SENSORY
EXPERIENCES WITHOUT BEING
OVERWHELMED EMOTIONALLY.
>> Darren: BETSY DAY, WE
APPRECIATE YOUR EXPERTISE ON
THIS MATTER.
THANK YOU.
STILL AHEAD, A HORRIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON FOR THE U.S.
WHY AND WHAT'S NEXT WITH JOSE
OUT THERE?
AND NEXT, THEY'VE MADE PEOPLE
LAUGH AND CRY, AND NOW QNEK SAYS
GOODBYE.
QNEK, DETAILS WHEN WE COME BACK.
>> Darren: IT'S CURTAINS FOR A
THEATER COMPANY IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.
QNEK WILL GIVE ITS FINAL
PERFORMANCE THIS AFTERNOON AT
THE HASKELL OPERA HOUSE IN DERBY
LINE.
LYNN LIMER FOUNDED QNEK 25 YEARS
AGO.
SHE WEARS MANY HATS THERE,
INCLUDING CEO.
SHE'S ALSO A PRETTY FANTASTIC
ACTRESS, IF DIE SAY SO.
GOOD MORNING, LYNN, THANK YOU
FOR JOINING US.
>> Flint: WELL, THANK YOU, DEAR.
I LOVE BEING WITH YOU.
>> Darren: AND WE ARE IN ACTRESS
MODE, FOLKS.
ALL RIGHT, SO TODAY WE'RE GOING
TO GET RIGHT TO IT.
THE LAST PERFORMANCE FOR QNEK,
WHY?
>> Flint: WELL, AFTER 25 YEARS,
I FELT THAT IT WAS TIME FOR ME
TO PASS THE REINS.
I HAD INVITED MY NEPHEW, PHIL
GOSSELIN AND HIS NOW WIFE JENNY
DUNN AND FOR THE PAST FIVE
YEARS, THEY'VE BEEN IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM TRYING TO GRAB
IT AND TAKE ON IT TO ANOTHER
LEVEL, BUT THEY'VE DECIDED TO
SEEK A NEW DREAM AND GO TO
AUSTIN, AND SO WITH THAT
CLOSURE, I'VE DECIDED TO CALL IT
FINITO FOR THE BUSINESS.
>> Darren: FOLKS MAY BE
WONDERING WHY YOU'RE DRESSED IN
THE HAD BEEN BIT.
YOU STARTED WITH NUNSENSE.
THE FINAL PERFORMANCE WILL BE
NUNSENSE AS WELL.
>> Flint: CORRECT.
>> Darren: FOR THOSE WHO HAVE
NOT SEEN IT, WHAT IS IT ABOUT?
>> Flint: IT'S THE LITTLE
SISTERS OF HOE BEAK KEN AND
THEIR SISTER HAS DIED OF
BOTULISM AND THERE'S FOUR OF
THEM IN THE FREEZER, THEY HAVE
TO DO A FUNDRAISER TO BURY THEM.
BUT WE'RE GOING TO DO SOME
FUNDRAISING FOR THE HURRICANE
VICTIMS.
>> Darren: YOU'RE BASED OUT OF
THE HASKELL OPERA HOUSE, VERY
UNIQUE BUILDING.
IT STRADDLES BOTH CANADA AND THE
U.S. IN DERBY LINE.
WHAT WAS IT LIKE BEING THERE?
WAS IT A SPECIAL PLACE?
>> Flint: MY GOSH, UNIQUE AND
FABULOUS AND THE MOST WONDERFUL
DREAM OF MY LIFE TO COME TRUE TO
BE IN TWO COUNTRIES AT THE SAME
TIME, BUT FOR QNEK TO BE THE
RESIDENT THEATER COMPANY,
INVITED BY THE BOARD OF
TRUSTEES, AND I HAVE BEEN THERE
THAT LONG, I'M ALSO THE DIRECTOR
OF THE HASKELL OPERA HOUSE, SO
I'LL BE RETIRING FROM BOTH QNEK
AND AS THE OPERA HOUSE DIRECTOR.
>> Darren: SO DOES THIS LEAVE
THE KINGDOM NOW WITHOUT A MAJOR
THEATER COMPANY?
>> Flint: OH, NO, THERE'S PLENTY
OF THEATER COMPANIES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THEY HAVE
LOTS OF PEOPLE THAT SUPPORT
THEM, BUT I THINK THERE'S A NEW
COMPANY COMING IN CALLED
BORDERLINE PLAYERS THAT ARE
FOLKS THAT HAVE BEEN IN QNEK
THAT WANT TO RE-ESTABLISH A
THEATER COMPANY AT THE OPERA
HOUSE.
SO I THINK WE HAVE THINGS TO
LOOK FORWARD TO.
>> Darren: WHAT WILL YOU MISS
THE MOST?
WHAT DO YOU IT THIS COMMUNITY
MAY MISS OUT ON?
>> Flint: I DON'T THINK THEY'RE
GOING TO MISS OUT.
I THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE A
NEW DIRECTION AND A NEW DREAM
AND I THINK SOMETHING EXCITING
IS GOING TO TRANSFORM AT THE
HASKELL OPERA HOUSE, SO I THINK
THAT THAT WILL BE A NEW
BEGINNING FOR EVERYONE.
>> Darren: WHAT WAS YOUR
FAVORITE PART OF BEING PART OF
THIS?
>> Flint: WELL, I'VE HAD THE
EXPERIENCE OF SHARING THEATER
WITH PEOPLE THAT MAY NEVER HAVE
HAD THAT OPPORTUNITY BEFORE,
ESPECIALLY THE YOUNG PEOPLE IN
THE AREA, AND MANY OF THEM HAVE
GONE ON TO NEW YORK CITY, TO
BROADWAY, TO WORKING WITH BON
JOVI, TO HAVING JUST WONDERFUL
CAREERS IN THE BUSINESS AND I
FEEL VERY PRIVILEGED.
>> Darren: WELL, NUNSENSE THE
SHOW IS TOTALLY AWESOME, AND
AGAIN, IF YOU'D LIKE TO CATCH
THE GRAND FINALE, IT'S THIS
AFTERNOON AT 2:00 P.M. AT THE
HASKELL OPERA HOUSE.
LYNN, THANK YOU, AND BEST OF
LUCK.
>> Flint: THANK YOU, DARREN.
>> Darren: GREAT TO SEE YOU AS
ALWAYS.
TIME NOW TO SEE WHAT'S COMING UP
FROM THE CHANNEL 3 NEWS WEEKEND
TEAM IN ABOUT 15 MINUTES.
>> COMING UP ON THE WEEKEND, I
TAKE A LOOK AT A GARDENER WHO IS
GROWING SOME MUMS THE
OLD-FASHIONED WAY.
THAT'S HAPPENING IN JERRICO.
SEE WHAT MAKES THEM SO
DIFFERENT.
THEN NICK AND I ARE BACK IN THE
KITCHEN MAKING A FALL SIDE DISH
WITH ROOT VEGETABLES.
STAY TUNED RIGHT HERE ON
CHANNEL 3 FOR MORE NEWS, SPORTS
AND WEATHER.
DARREN, BACK TO YOU.
>> Darren: AND UP NEXT ON
CHANNEL 3'S "YOU CAN QUOTE ME,"
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
AN EXPERT ON CLIMATE JOIN ME.
WHAT MADE THESE RECENT
HURRICANES SO DEVASTATING?
I'LL ASK THEM.
>> Darren: A WEEK AFTER
HURRICANE IRMA TORE THROUGH
FLORIDA AND THE CARIBBEAN, AND
LEFT MILLIONS WITHOUT POWER.
RESIDENTS ARE SLOWLY RETURNING
TO FIND RUINS IN SOME OF THE
HARDEST HIT NEIGHBORHOOD.
FROM THE AIR, THE SEARCH AND
RESCUE CAMPAIGN IN RESPONSE TO
IRMA'S DESTRUCTION IS VAST.
ON THE GROUND, THE CAMPAIGN IS
ABOUT DOOR KNOCKING WHERE THERE
IS ONE.
FIRE AND RESCUE TEAMS ALONG WITH
FEMA OFFICIALS ARE WALKING THE
DEBRIS-FILLED STREETS IN
FLORIDA, MARKING HOMES THAT ARE
SAFE AND DOCUMENTING THE DAMAGE.
MILLIONS LOST POWER AND IT COULD
REMAIN OUT IN THE KEYS AND ON
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FOR
MANY MORE DAYS.
FLORIDA GOVERNOR RICK SCOTT
URGED FIRST RESPONDERS TO CHECK
HEALTHCARE FACILITIES AFTER
EIGHT PATIENTS DIED AT A NURSING
HOME WITH AN AIR CONDITIONING
OUTAGE.
AT LEAST 33 PEOPLE ARE CONFIRMED
DEAD ON THE U.S. MAINLAND.
AT LEAST ANOTHER 38 WERE KILLED
IN THE CARIBBEAN.
ST. JOHN, ONE OF THE UNITED
STATES VIRGIN ISLANDS, MAY
REPRESENT IRMA'S WORST IMPACT ON
AMERICAN SOIL.
IRMA HIT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH
150-MILE-AN-HOUR WINDS.
THE STORM CHANGED THE LANDSCAPE
OF ST. JOHN, STRIPPING THE
LEAVES OFF THE TREES AND MAKING
THE HILLSIDE LOOK CHARRED.
NEARLY EVERY BUILDING ON THE
ISLAND IS DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
AND TO TALK MORE ABOUT THIS
MONSTER STORM, I'M JOINED NOW BY
JOHN GOFF WITH THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND
CLIMATOLOGIST LESLEY-ANN
DUPIGNY-GIROUX.
GOOD MORNING FOR BOTH OF YOU.
>> Dupigny-Giroux: GOOD MORNING.
>> Darren: LET'S GET RIGHT TO
IT.
WHAT MADE IRMA SUCH A MONSTER
STORM?
>> Goff: WE'VE HAD QUITE AN
ACTIVE SEASON AND OUR THOUGHTS
AND PRAYERS GO OUT TO THE
VICTIMS AND FAMILIES INFLUENCED
BY THESE TERRIBLE STORMS.
PROBABLY THE MOST INFLUENTIAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL FACTOR WE'VE SEEN
SO FAR THIS HURRICANE SEASON IS
A WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
TYPICALLY YOU WANT WARM OCEAN
WATER TO DRIVE HURRICANES.
THAT'S ONE OF THE MAIN FACTORS,
ABOVE 80 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AND
THAT WAS A LARGE ROLE IN DRIVING
THESE MONSTER STORMS.
>> Dupigny-Giroux: RIGHT, AND
THE OCEAN SURFACE WAS ACTUALLY
ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR A LOT OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, AND WHEN THAT
COMBINES WITH THE FACT THAT
THERE WAS LOW AMOUNTS OF WHAT WE
CALL SHEAR, SO IN OTHER WORDS,
THE ATMOSPHERE WAS NOT SORT OF
CHOPPING OFF THE TOPS OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY WERE
DEVELOPING, THAT ALLOWED THEM TO
DEVELOP EVEN LARGER THAN THEY
WOULD BE.
>> Darren: DOES GEOGRAPHY PLAY A
ROLE AT ALL?
>> Dupigny-Giroux: ABSOLUTELY
AND A LOT OF IT HAS TO DO WITH
THE ACTUAL TRACK THAT THEY MOVED
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN BEFORE
THEY MAKE LANDFALL, BUT ALSO IT
HAS TO DO WITH THE SHAPE OF THE
COASTLINE WHEN THEY DO MAKE
LANDFALL BECAUSE IN THE CASE OF
SOMETHING LIKE HARVEY, THE SHAPE
OF THAT COASTLINE ALLOWED THE
STORM SURGE, ALLOWED ALL THE
CONVERGING WINDS, A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO SORT OF
ACTUALLY CONVERGE AND HIT A
BULL'S-EYE THAN IF IT HAD BEEN
MORE LIKE IN THE CASE OF IRENE,
WHICH WAS PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL.
>> Darren: WHEN WE HEAR ABOUT
STORM PREDICTIONS LIKE THIS, YOU
ALWAYS HEAR ABOUT THE CONE OF
UNCERTAINTY, IF YOU WILL.
HOW SPOT ON WERE THE PREDICTIONS
FOR, SAY, IRMA IN WHERE THIS
STORM WAS GOING TO MAKE
LANDFALL?
>> Goff: THEY WERE PRETTY GOOD
ALL ALONG.
THE TRACK ERRORS FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAVE
STEADILY IMPROVED OVER THE
YEARS, GENERALLY WITHIN 50
MILES, WITHIN A DAY, WITHIN
ABOUT 100 MILES ON A THREE-DAY
FORECAST AND 200 MILES ON A
FIVE-DAY FORECAST.
NOW, WHEN YOU LOOK THAT FAR OUT,
IF SOMEBODY IS GOING TO TELL YOU
A HURRICANE IS GOING TO BE
WITHIN 100 OR 200 MILES OF YOU A
WEEK OUT, THAT'S FAIRLY CLOSE,
YOU SHOULD BE AT LEAST THINKING
ABOUT TAKING ACTION OR KEEPING
ABREAST OF THE CURRENT
SITUATION.
THOSE HAVE DRAMATICALLY IMPROVED
OVER THE YEARS AS WELL AS THE
INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE PRETTY
GOOD.
GENERALLY WITHIN 20 TO 30 MILES
AN HOUR ERROR, WITHIN ABOUT
THREE TO FIVE DAYS, WHICH IS
PRETTY GOOD.
>> Dupigny-Giroux: AND WHAT THAT
ALLOWS IS FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS
AND RESIDENTS OF THE AREA TO
HAVE A BETTER SENSE OF WHO NEEDS
EVACUATION AND WHO NEEDS TO
EVACUATE NOW?
>> Darren: ARE THEY DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT?
WHAT GOES INTO FIGURING OUT
WHERE STORM IS GOING TO GO?
>> Goff: THERE'S A LOT OF
COMPLEX INTERPLAY.
WE HAVE A NUMBER OF MODELS THAT
WE LOOK AT THAT CAN PREDICT
WHETHER HURRICANES OR A TROPICAL
STORM MAY FORM OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC OR PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE PREDICTIONS HAVE GRADUALLY
INCREASED OVER THE YEARS.
IT'S STILL A COMPLEX PROCESS.
AS LESLEY-ANN MENTIONED, THE
INTERACTIONS WITH LAND AND WHEN
YOU'RE LOOKING FAR OUT AND WE
LOOK AT THAT CONE OF UNCERTAIN,
THAT DOES GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER TIME, BUT THE PREDICTIONS
HAVE GOTTEN BETTER AND THE
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS HAS BEEN
GOTTEN TO A STATE AS SUCH THAT
WE HAVE GROWING CONFIDENCE EACH
AND EVERY PASSING YEAR ON WHERE
THESE STORMS WILL TRACK.
>> Dupigny-Giroux: AND ONE OF
THE NEAT THINGS IS THAT AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC MODELS ARE GETTING
BETTER, SO ARE THE OCEANIC
MODELS AND FOR US TO REALLY MAKE
SURE WE'RE DOING A GOOD JOB, WE
ALWAYS HAVE TO REMEMBER THIS IS
A SYSTEM AND HURRICANES ARE HEAT
ENGINES AND WE NEED TO ALSO HAVE
THAT OCEAN FEEDING INTO THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THEN BACK TO
REALLY GET A GOOD HANDLE ON
WHAT'S TAKING PLACE.
>> Darren: IRMA FOLLOWED HARVEY,
ANOTHER DEADLY AND DESTRUCTIVE
STORM THAT HIT TEXAS.
THAT WAS A SLOW MOVER.
WHAT MADE THAT STORM DIFFERENT
THAN IRMA IN THAT IT SAT THERE
FOR A WHILE AND REALLY SOAKED
THAT STATE?
>> Dupigny-Giroux: SO IN THE
CASE OF HARVEY, THERE WERE A
COUPLE THINGS GOING ON.
AND I KNOW JOHN IS GOING TO JUMP
IN.
THERE WAS SOME WHAT WE CALL
BLOCKING HIGH PATTERNS WHICH
SORT OF MADE THE SYSTEM STALL IN
PLACE, AND SO IF YOU LOOK AT THE
TRACK THAT YOU WERE TALKING
ABOUT A MINUTE AGO, THE TRACK
CAME IN AND INSTEAD OF RECURVING
AND CONTINUING UP EITHER INTO
NORTH AMERICA OR CURVING BACK
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, IT SAT IN
PLACE AND SO THE TRACK HAD A
LITTLE DIP BEFORE IT CAME BACK
AND WENT INTO LOUISIANA.
KNOWING WHAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
DOING AND IF THERE ARE PLACES IN
THE ATMOSPHERE THAT ARE
PREVENTING THAT STORM FROM
MOVING OUT IS ABSOLUTELY
IMPORTANT.
>> Goff: YEAH, THAT'S VERY TRUE.
WE TALK ABOUT THE BLOCKING
HIGHS, A TYPICAL HURRICANE
PATTERN WILL BE FOR THE
HURRICANE TO GAIN LATITUDE AND
OVER TIME AS IT GETS FURTHER AND
FURTHER INTO THE NORTHERLY
LATITUDES, IT PICKS UP WHAT WE
CALL THE WESTERLY WINDS WHICH
ARE A COMMON CLIMATOLOGICAL
FACTOR IN TEMPERATE ZONES OF THE
WORLD.
BEING IN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND, WE'RE IN THAT ZONE
WHERE THE WESTERLY WINDS USUALLY
KEEP STORMS MOVING ALONG.
ONCE THE HURRICANES GET INTO
THAT ZONE, THEY GET SWEPT UP AND
MOVED OUT TO SEA.
IN THE HARVEY SITUATION, THAT
DIDN'T HAPPEN SOCCER IT HAD NO
REALLY STEERING CURRENTS, SO TO
SPEAK.
ALMOST LIKE AN EDDY SOMETIMES
WHEN A LEAF GETS CAUGHT IN AN
EDDY IN A STREAM, IT CAN'T GET
GO ANYWHERE.
VERY SIMILAR TO THAT.
WHEREAS IRMA DID GET PICKED UP
ACTUALLY THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING
ACROSS US TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
>> Darren: IS GLOBAL WARMING AT
PLAY HERE?
>> Goff: THERE'S A LOT OF MIXED
THEORIES ABOUT IT.
IF YOU LOOK AT A LOT OF
LONG-TERM TRENDS AND GROWING
CONSENSUS, THERE'S PROBABLY SOME
ENTER PLAY WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
AND THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANES
AND THE NUMBER OF HURRICANES,
BUT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL DATABASE
OF HURRICANES ONLY GOES BACK
REALLY ACCURATELY ABOUT 100
YEARS.
ALREADY THAT, THERE WAS A LOT OF
HEARSAY ON WHERE HURRICANES
TRACKED.
BUT IT DOES PLAY A ROLE, BUT HOW
MUCH IS STILL A DEBATE.
>> Dupigny-Giroux: ONE OF THINGS
WE DO KNOW, FOR EVERY DEGREE OF
ATMOSPHERE WARMING, THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS 7% MORE WATER
VAPOR IT IN, SO WHEN WE THINK OF
THE CASE OF THE LATTER PART OF
THE SEASON THAT WE'RE IN RIGHT
NOW WITH TEMPERATURES BEING AT
LEAST 4 DEGREES ABOVE WHAT IS
NEEDED FOR HURRICANES TO
DEVELOP, YOU CAN DO THE MATH AND
FIGURE OUT APPROXIMATELY HOW
MUCH MORE WATER VAPOR IS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.
SOME OF THE OTHER THINGS THAT
ARE RELATED TO OUR CHANGING
CLIMATE ARE ALSO AS THE SEA
LEVEL CONTINUES TO RISE THAT,
HAS COMPLICATIONS FOR THE HEIGHT
OF THE STORM SURGE ONCE WE DO
MAKE LANDFALL, SO THAT'S A
COUPLE ADDITIONAL PIECES THAT
ALL THE EVIDENCE IS SORT OF
COMING TOGETHER TO HELP US
UNDERSTAND HOW THAT ACTUALLY
PLAYS OUT.
>> Darren: SO DOES THIS MEAN
WE'RE GOING TO SEE MORE POWERFUL
STORMS LIKE WE'RE SEEING?
>> Goff: IT COULD BE.
THERE ARE POWERFUL STORMS ON AND
OFF EVERY GIVEN YEAR, BUT THE
BIG CHALLENGE IS AND WHAT THE
PUBLIC NEEDS TO UNDERSTAND IS
NOT ALL OF THOSE STORMS HIT
LAND.
THERE ARE MANY YEARS YOU MAY
HAVE A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OUT
IN THE ATLANTIC OR PACIFIC AND
IT STAYS AWAY AND CURVES UP INTO
THE OCEAN.
THE UNUSUAL THING THIS YEAR IS
WE'VE HAD TWO CATEGORY 4'S HIT
THE LOWER 48 WITHIN IS A MATTER
TWO OF TO THREE WEEKS AND THAT'S
ONLY HAPPENED ONE TIME.
IN 1992, WE HAD ANDREW HIT SOUTH
FLORIDA AND WE HAD A CATEGORY 4
HIT HAWAII.
OTHER THAN THAT YEAR, IT'S NEVER
HAPPENED.
THERE'S SOME CONSENSUS THAT MORE
POWERFUL HURRICANES MAY DEVELOP
IN THE FUTURE AND WE MAY HAVE
MORE OF THEM AND THAT TIES BACK
INTO THE CLIMATE QUESTION YOU
ASKED EARLIER, SO THERE'S A LOT
OF SCIENCE AND RESEARCH GOING
INTO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
THAT THAT'S GOING TO OCCUR.
THEY CAN RUN MODELS OUT IN THE
FUTURE TO SEE WHAT KIND OF
SITUATIONS WILL DEVELOP
HYPOTHETICALLY.
>> Dupigny-Giroux: AND SO ONE OF
THE THINGS THEY'RE LOOKING AT IS
THE SIZE OF THE STORMS.
YOU KNOW, WHEN YOU START TALKING
ABOUT 500-PLUS-MILE TYPE STORMS
AND MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION
COMING WITH A SYSTEM OF THAT
SIZE, THE INTENSITY OF THE
ACTUAL STORM ITSELF IS ONE OF
THE PIECES THAT ALSO IS AT PLAY.
>> Darren: IT WAS INTERESTING, I
THINK, FROM A LAYMAN WHO DOESN'T
REALLY KNOW A LOT ABOUT THIS,
JUST TO LOOK AT THE FORMATION OF
IRMA FROM SOME OF THE SATELLITE
IMAGES THAT WE SAW.
THE EYE OF THAT WAS SO SPECIFIC.
WAS THAT UNUSUAL LIKE THAT?
>> Goff: NOT REALLY, I WOULDN'T
SAY SO.
IN THE CATEGORY 4 OR 5, YOU HAVE
A VERY BIG CIRCULATION.
ONE THING THAT'S IMPORTANT TO
ALSO DIFFERENTIATE IS YOU CAN
HAVE A SMALL HURRICANE, MAYBE
ONLY 100 MILES ACROSS, THAT'S A
CATEGORY 5 OR YOU CAN HAVE A BIG
ONE THAT'S 500 MILES ACROSS, AND
THE ANTITHESIS OF THAT IS TRUE
TOO.
YOU CAN HAVE A BIG HURRICANE
THAT'S WEAK OR A SMALL HURRICANE
THAT'S WEAK.
YOU CAN HAVE DIFFERENT SIZES.
TYPICALLY WHEN YOU HAVE A VERY
STRONG CATEGORY 4 OTHER 5
HURRICANE, THAT CENTRAL EYE
FEATURE IS USUALLY VERY TIGHT.
YOU HAVE TO THINK OF THE VORTEX
TIGHTENING UP TO GET THOSE REAL
HIGH, WHAT WAS IT,
185-MILE-AN-HOUR SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH IRMA AT ONE POINT?
IF IT'S A LARGER EYE, IT'S
HARDER TO DO BECAUSE YOU DON'T
HAVE THE ANGULAR MOMENTUM TO GET
IT TIGHTENED UP.
>> Dupigny-Giroux: ONE WAY OF
QUICKLY THINKING ABOUT THAT, IF
YOU'RE FIGURE SKATING, YOU WANT
TO SPIN FASTER, YOU CLOSE IN ON
YOURSELF AND SO THE TIGHTER THAT
CIRCULATION, THE FASTER THE
WINDS ARE GOING TO BE.
>> Darren: NOW WE HAVE JOSE
SPINNING OUT THERE AS WELL.
ANY PREDICTIONS ON THIS OR IS IT
TOO SOON TO KNOW?
I THINK WE HAVE A TRACK OF WHERE
THIS IS RIGHT NOW.
>> Goff: YEAH, I THINK IT'S TOO
SOON TO KNOW.
I WOULD SAY I'LL ADD A BOOST OF
CONFIDENCE TO MOST OF THE MOST
RELIABLE INFORMATION WE HAVE
RIGHT NOW IS IT WILL PROBABLY
STAY OUT TO SEA AND RECURVE.
THERE'S SOME INFORMATION AND A
FEW OF THE MODELS THAT MAY KEEP
IT CLOSE TO THE COAST.
I THINK THE IMPACTS TO VERMONT,
AT LEAST FROM MY PERSPECTIVE AND
WHAT I LOOKED AT IS PRETTY
MINIMAL.
I WOULD SAY PROBABLY THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROBABLY HAVE ROUGH
SEAS REGARDLESS IF IT MAKES
LANDFALL OR NOT.
THESE STORMS TEND TO MAKE LARGE
WAVES THAT PROPAGATE AWAY FROM
THE SYSTEM QUITE A WAYS.
>> Dupigny-Giroux: AND JOSE
LOOKS LIKE SOME EARLIER STORMS
BACK IN JUNE OF THIS YEAR WHERE
IT CAME UP AND STAYED IN THE MID
PART OF THE ATLANTIC AND FUN
AROUND BEFORE IT DISSIPATES
ITSELF.
MAYBE WE CAN LEARN FROM THAT.
>> Darren: WELL, SHARON DURING A
COUPLE OF OUR BROADCASTS HERE
TALK ABOUT THIS STORM JUST SORT
OF LIKE LOOPING AROUND.
THAT IS A COMMON THING FOR SOME
OF THESE HURRICANES?
>> Goff: SOMETIMES IT CAN BE.
I WOULDN'T SAY THAT'S A NORMAL
THING TO HAPPEN.
IT CERTAINLY DOES HAPPEN,
THOUGH.
I BELIEVE IN 2004, HURRICANE
GENE HAD A TRACK WHERE IT WENT
EAST OF FLORIDA, WENT OUT TOWARD
BERMUDA, DID A LOOP AND CAME
BACK AND STRUCK FLORIDA GOOD A
WEEK LATER, A VERY UNUSUAL
TRACK.
I WOULDN'T CALL THAT RARE, BUT
IT'S NOT COMMON TO DO A TOTAL
LOOP-TO-LOOP.
>> Dupigny-Giroux: AND HARVEY
DID A LOOP-TO-LOOP TOO.
>> Darren: AND MADE LANDFALL.
THANK YOU BOTH FOR YOUR
EXPERTISE.
I APPRECIATE IT.
THANK YOU FOR WATCHING CHANNEL 3
NEWS.
THERE'S A LOT MORE COMING UP ON
THE WEEKEND.
TAKE CARE, EVERYBODY.
WE'LL SEE YOU SOON.
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