"There will be this snarling pit bull posse that's around him as soon as he walks out the door now," said Tom Powell, a forensic psychologist.
Powell says the cards are stacked against Timothy Szad, 53, after a state-mandated public warning went out about his release. The high-risk sex offender will leave prison Friday after serving more than a decade behind bars for sexually assaulting a teenage boy. He will not be supervised by Corrections.
"Every 12- or 13-year-old boy in Springfield now is going to be sheltered and kept off the streets until something happens to Mr. Szad," Powell said.
Ten days ago, the Vt. Department of Corrections notified the public Szad was going to live in Springfield and is likely to reoffend, despite receiving treatment in prison. Officials said his potential victims would be blonde, blue-eyed teenage boys he didn't know.
Powell has not evaluated Szad, but has worked extensively with incarcerated sex offenders in the past. He says
contrary to public belief, only 10 percent to 15 percent of sexual predators on average reoffend. He believes the warning overstates how dangerous Szad is and destroys his support system on the outside.
"If they feel alienated and disgraced and dismissed and marginalized then they've got nothing really to restrain them from their own bad instincts," Powell said.
Originally Szad had lined up housing with Springfield family members, but after receiving threats they backed out of the deal. Corrections officials now say Szad plans to leave the state immediately following his release, but they would not say where he's going.
"If he can't get a job, if he can't have a safe place to live, if he can't have a social support system, where's he going to go?" Powell said. "He's got nowhere to go; he's been basically chased out of town... and people in that condition have less reason to do well and more reason to follow their bad desires and bad instincts... and not be able to hold onto the treatment gains they gotten nearly as well."
Powell says if Szad defies the odds and reoffends in Vermont, his case is likely to reopen political debate about civil confinement, where offenders can be held past their sentence if deemed dangerous.
Wednesday, April 16 2014 11:52 PM EDT2014-04-17 03:52:17 GMT
The Stowe Police Department is currently investigating the untimely death of two adults. Stowe Police responded to 262 Cady Hill Road at 4:38 p.m. and discovered deceased individuals. The Stowe PoliceMore >>
The Stowe Police Department is currently investigating the untimely death of two adults.More >>
Wednesday, April 16 2014 11:49 PM EDT2014-04-17 03:49:04 GMT
Major flaws were uncovered in the Burlington School Budget that failed at the polls. An audit has discovered that the district was making huge errors when budgeting for next year. What this means, is thatMore >>
Major flaws were uncovered in the Burlington School Budget that failed at the polls. An audit has discovered that the district was making huge errors when budgeting for next year.More >>
Wednesday, April 16 2014 6:53 PM EDT2014-04-16 22:53:47 GMT
Teamwork between a Montgomery farmer and a corporal with the Franklin Country sheriff's department may have saved a life when they pulled off a daring rescue. A woman became trapped in her truck tryingMore >>
It was a lifesaving rescue in the nick of time. A Franklin County sheriff's deputy put his life on the line to save a woman trapped in a truck with floodwaters raging around her. More >>
Wednesday, April 16 2014 7:00 PM EDT2014-04-16 23:00:55 GMT
After this week's whirlwind weather events and major flooding Tuesday, Governor Shumlin (D-Vermont), VTrans and state transportation officials held a news conference Wednesday to discuss the aftermath. ShumlinMore >>
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Wednesday, April 16 2014 12:02 PM EDT2014-04-16 16:02:05 GMT
The floods forced Gov. Andrew Cuomo to declare a state of emergency in New York. The governor made the declaration Tuesday night. It covers six counties in northeastern of New York, including two inMore >>
The floods forced Gov. Andrew Cuomo to declare a state of emergency in New York.More >>
Wednesday, April 16 2014 6:21 PM EDT2014-04-16 22:21:46 GMT
A body found near the North Hartland Dam appears to be that of a missing man from New Hampshire. Michael Hayward, 42, of Sunapee, disappeared two months ago. His car was found near the Quechee Gorge. PoliceMore >>
A body found near the North Hartland Dam appears to be that of a missing man from New Hampshire.More >>
Wednesday, April 16 2014 7:14 PM EDT2014-04-16 23:14:24 GMT
Authorities say six people managed to escape a house fire in Plattsburgh Tuesday morning. First responders say when they arrived at 42 Smith Street, the house was completely engulfed in flames. CityMore >>
Authorities say six people managed to escape a house fire in Plattsburgh Tuesday morning. Police say the blaze was sparked by a child playing with a lighter.More >>
Wednesday, April 16 2014 6:07 PM EDT2014-04-16 22:07:50 GMT
Police in Haverhill, N.H., say they got numerous calls about a young child walking down a road alone. They found the child about a mile from her home. She was brought back to the residence, but the NewMore >>
Police in Haverhill, N.H., say they found a young child alone about a mile from her home.More >>