BURLINGTON, Vt. (WCAX) - As rain covers Vermont, New York and New Hampshire, Channel 3 News and the Max Advantage Weather Team are watching river level and potential flood conditions across our region. One of the tools referred to often is the National Weather Service "Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service," which allows users to view specific river gauges for their current readings and to see the forecast for river levels in those areas.
Ausable River near Au Sable Forks, NY.
As of 3:30 pm Saturday, April 20, NWS models predict the areas most affected by rain and snowmelt runoff are the Lamoille River at Johnson; the Passumpsic River South of St. Johnsbury; Schroon River south of Buck Mountain in New York.
We have included a live window into the NWS prediction website, allowing users to interact with the data below, and we have prepared a brief for expected water levels and flooding effects in areas across our region, with links back to the source data.
Areas expecting "Moderate" flood stage:
Johnson, VT - Lamoille River
The Lamoille River at Johnson, VT, is expected to crest at 14.2' by 9:00 pm Saturday. Water is expected to cover Route 15 at Wrong Way Bridge in Cambridge and may cover Routes 108 and 109 in Jeffersonville. "Moderate" flood stage is 14'-16'.
Lyndonville/St. Johnsbury, VT - Passumpsic River
The Passumpsic River from Lyndonville through St. Johnsbury and south is expected to crest at 18.2' at 8:00am, Easter Sunday, April 21. The expected impact of water at this level includes Route 5 flooded both north and south of Lyndonville, flooding around the Center Street bridge and potentially some homes and businesses taking on water. "Significant" flooding is expected on Route 5 and Old Center Road in St. Jonhsbury center at this level, and flooding could also occur upstream along the Sleepers River in St. Johnsbury. "Moderate" flood stage is 15'-19'. According to the NWS, flooding could be "similar to Irene in 2011." For context, those waters crested at 18.95' in 2011, so the predicted level this weekend would be 9 inches lower than that high water mark.
Buck Mountain, NY - Schroon River
The Schroon River area predicted to see flood stage runs north-south along Interstate 87 and Route 10/Schroon River Road, roughly 3 miles east of Chestertown, NY, and 2 miles west of Bolton Landing, NY. Flooding here is expected to crest later than in Vermont, at around 2:00 am on Monday, April 22. Crest is predicted to reach 8.6'. "Moderate" flood stage is Water at this level is expected to surround several homes in the area along Schroon River Road, but should not quite reach or cover Tannery Road east of Chestertown.
Areas expecting "Minor" flood stage:
Essex Junction, VT - Winooski River
12.7' flood stage expected to cause North Williston Road in Essex and Pine Island Road in Colchester to flood - drivers should find an alternate route through that area Saturday evening into Easter Sunday. Water will approach low lying farmland in the Burlington Intervale with some flooding in the Intervale.
Orleans and Coventry, VT - Barton River
9.6' flood stage expected around 2:00 am Easter Sunday. Water predicted to flood Maple Street and River Road between Orleans and Coventry Station. Extensive field and lowland flooding is also expected.
North Troy, VT - Missisquoi River
9.93'-10' flood stage expected around 5:00 pm, Saturday. Water predicted to flood farmlands along the Missisquoi from Lowell to North Troy. Low portions of Loop Road near Troy and Westfield will flood, along with portions of River Road between Troy and North Troy.
Wells River, VT - Wells River and Connecticut River
On the Wells River, flood crest expected at 7.7' and to hold at around that level for 6 hours, before beginning to recede after 2:00 am Easter Sunday, April 21. At this level, water should approach US Highway 302 along the Wells River in Groton, South Ryegate and Wells River.
On the Connecticut River, flood crest expected to reach 12' at 2:00 am Monday, April 22. Minor lowland flooding and some low lying farmland flooding expected in both Vermont and New Hampshire.
Wells River info: You can see the specific information from NWS for this location here.
Connecticut River info: You can see the specific information from NWS for this location here.
Rouses Point, NY - Lake Champlain
As water drains into Lake Champlain, lake levels are expected to rise through the weekend to reach 100.2' flood stage between 2:00 am and 8:00 am Tuesday, April 23. At this level, some lakefront properties will see water entering from the lake, low lying roads, piers and docks will be threatened with flooding, and windward facing shore could see additional water levels as wind and waves combine. Water will threaten the Burlington waterfront at Perkins Pier and the King Street ferry dock.
Au Sable Forks, NY - Ausable River (East Branch)
The crest appears to have been reached at 11:45 am Saturday, at 8.27', and is now on the decline. Ausable River should be below flood stage by 2:00 am, Easter Sunday, April 21.
Bethlehem, NH - Ammonoosuc River
The Ammonoosuc river is expected to crest at 8:00 pm Saturday, April 20 at 8.37'. River Road around Black Brook east of Bethlehem begins to flood at this level.
Woodstock to Plymouth, NH - Pemigewasset River
The Pemigewasset River at Woodstock is expected to crest at 11.3' at 8:00 pm Saturday, April 20. This level will flood the campgrounds along the river and Route 175 will be flooded to a depth of more than 1 foot of water at Cox Farm Road in Woodstock.
In Plymouth, the Pemigewasset is predicted to reach 17.4' flood stage at 8:00 am Easter Sunday, April 21. Water at this level will be over the road at Irving Station on Route 175A in Holderness, in the parking lot behind PSU arena, but should fall short of flooding South River Road or Avery Street in Holderness.
Woodstock reporting station: You can see the specific information from NWS for this location here.
Plymouth reporting station: You can see the specific information from NWS for this location here.
North Stratford to Dalton, NH - Connecticut River
The Connecticut River at North Stratford is predicted to crest at 13.11’ at 8:00 am Easter Sunday, April 21. Only minor lowland flooding is expected at that level.
In Dalton, the Connecticut crests 36 hours later, at 21.1’ at 8:00 pm Monday, April 22. At that level, Route 102 in Guildhall, VT, will flood, along with Route 135 in South Lancaster. Munces Campground in Lancaster, Perras Road and Old Village Road in North Umberland, NH, also are predicted to flood. Also, River Road in Lunenburg, VT, between Mt. Orme Bridge and South Lunenburg Village; Lamoureux Road in Maidstone, VT will be flooded.
North Stratford reporting station: You can see the specific information from NWS for this location here.
Dalton reporting station: You can see the specific information from NWS for this location here.
Gorham, NH - Androscoggin River
The Androscoggin River is expected to crest at 8.2' between 2:00 am and 8:00 am on Easter Sunday, April 21. The Mr. Pizza parking lot begins to flood at this level.